Potential impact of novel diagnostics and treatments on the burden of antibiotic resistant in Escherichia coli

The rising threat of antibiotic resistance in Europe and beyond is of increasing concern and is prompting renewed effort to better understand and mitigate their impact. Escherichia Coli blood stream infections are a more major concern in Europe given their incidence and severe associated outcomes. Additionally the level of 3 generation cephalosporins and carbapenems resistance among those bacteraemia has significantly increased, limiting available treatment options. We estimated the current burden associated with E. coli blood stream infections in Europe at 17,000 (95%CI [8,000; 30,000]) excess deaths and 960,000 (95%CI [600,000; 1,450,000]) extra hospital bed days. From those, the contribution due to 3 generation cephalosporins and carbapenems resistant strains reached 6,000 (95%CI [2,000; 12,000]) excess deaths, and 200,000 (95%CI [76,000; 420,000]) extra hospital bed stay. In the worst case scenario, we estimated the burden of E. coli blood stream infection in 2026 could increase over 4-fold, mostly resulting from an increase in the level of resistance rather than an increase in the incidence of blood stream infections. Finally, we estimated that the impact of combined novel diagnostics and treatments could substantially reduce the excess mortality by 18.5% to 55.5%, and length of stay by 13.2% to 75.6%. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It is made available under a The copyright holder for this preprint (which was . http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/052944 doi: bioRxiv preprint first posted online May. 13, 2016;